‘Stability is fragile': An overlooked European conflict zone is at a tipping point between peace and combat
Serbia-Kosovo relations, which have been fraught since the pair’s conflict in the 1990s, remain fragile despite a new path to normalization being agreed, the diplomat said.
The agreement marked progress for the adversaries, but was later marred by a resurgence in violence.
Relations between Serbia and Kosovo, which have been fraught since the pair’s conflict in the 1990s, remain delicate one year on from a tentative agreement on a new path to normalization.
“The stability is fragile. We cannot take peace and stability for granted,” said the EU special representative for the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue and Western Balkans.
The Belgrade-Pristina dialogue is a series of talks facilitated by the European Union designed to ease hostilities between the neighboring southeastern European countries.
In February 2023, a path to normalization was agreed upon by Serbia and Kosovo, marking progress for the adversaries, whose friction centers on territorial disputes and ethnic divisions.
But that progress was later marred by a resurgence in violence in northern Kosovo, including a deadly shootout between a heavily armed group of ethnic Serbs and Kosovo special police forces.
Northern Kosovo has an ethnic Serb majority and Belgrade claims it as its southern province. Kosovo as a whole is around 93% ethnic Albanian and Pristina declared independence in 2008.
Years of conflict between the pair have left Europe divided on the path forward, with several EU members and other non-EU neighbors disputing Kosovo’s claim to independence.
However, the normalization agreement had advanced the situation “like never before” and the focus was now on implementation. Normalization measures include the development of “normal, good-neighbourly relations” and restraint from the “threat or use of force” in future disputes.
“There is no way back,” said the EU diplomat. “There is no way before these agreements because these agreements are accepted by both parties.”
Both the EU and the U.S. are heavily invested in the normalization of relations between Serbia and Kosovo, even as they contend with other rapidly evolving international conflicts.
But the clock is ticking. With elections due this summer, progress on normalization talks will be critical before the issue is deprioritized.
Resistance is more likely to come from Serbia and Kosovo’s respective leaders, who have nationalistic bases at home to appease.
The stakes are high for both sides. With aspirations toward EU membership, this could provide the EU with a carrot to incentivize peace between the two countries.
Serbia is currently in the midst of EU accession talks, having been granted candidate status in 2012, while Kosovo has potential candidate status, though both will require major reforms to be admitted to the bloc.
“The success of the process of normalization will also depend on how directly and closely they are linked to Kosovo and Serbia’s EU path,” said the EU diplomat. “That’s the strongest leverage we have.”